Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL
From 2016 through 2020, Max Holloway only ever fought in title fights. But after three title fight losses, Holloway is now holding the role of non-title main event material. Which seems to suit him just fine, based on his record-setting striking performance against Calvin Kattar in his last fight.
MMA analysts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker are here to give you their best bets for UFC Fight Night.
Prelims start at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Featherweight main event: Max Holloway (-625) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+450)
Tale Of The Tape
| MAX HOLLOWAY | YAIR RODRIGUEZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Last fight weight class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Age | 29 | 29 |
| Height | 71 | 71 |
| Reach | 69 | 71 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Analyzed minutes | 361 | 133 |
| Stand-up striking offense | ||
| Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) | 8:0 | 3:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 0.6% | 2.3% |
| Head jab accuracy | 33% | 31% |
| Head power accuracy | 42% | 26% |
| Total stand-up strike ratio | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total head strike defense | 70% | 69% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") | 100% | 100% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per min standing/clinch | 0.02 | 0.29 |
| Takedown accuracy | 71% | 30% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 3.6 | 0.9 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 145 | 33 |
| Takedown defense | 84% | 64% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 41% | 28% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.29 | 0.40 |
Holloway's losses to Alexander Volkanovski and Dustin Poirier (at lightweight) proved he can be beaten, but they also proved his resilience and cemented his ability to fight at full speed over five full rounds, even when facing an elite opponent. Now against less experienced talent, Holloway could do his best work in a five-round fight. Rodriguez clearly has upside in the long run, but facing a superior striker with no proven superlatives to create an opportunity just means it's a steep uphill battle.
While both men can move at a solid pace, Holloway has shown some of the best strike accuracy in the UFC and has done so while facing the best of the best. Rodriguez has shown mediocre accuracy and defense against less dominant talent -- and for not nearly as long. While his power is arguably greater than Holloway's on a per-strike basis, the accumulation of damage from Holloway's relentless barrages has worn down former champions and challengers alike. A five-rounder is a long time to survive his pressure, but the youth and resilience could keep Rodriguez standing.
Kuhn's pick: Holloway to use in parlays. Avoid the primary 4.5 round total, unless you're using an alternative lower total for parlays, such as over 2.5 at roughly -200. Holloway has gone over 2.5 rounds in all 11 appearances since 2015 and in 19 of his 24 career UFC bouts.
Coming off one of the most dominant striking wins in the history of the UFC, Holloway is looking to take one more step in his quest to getting back to another title shot. In his last six fights dating back to 2018, other than a TKO win over Brian Ortega that ended at the end of Round 4 via doctor stoppage, Holloway's fights have all gone the distance. I expect this fight against Rodriguez to be very similar to his last fight against Kattar. Look for Holloway to turn this into a boxing match, use his speed, precision and incredible volume to overwhelm Rodriguez throughout the five-round main event.
Rodriguez is a very talented striker with a karate style. I don't see either man getting the finish, as both don't really possess true KO power, unless Rodriguez lands some sort of spinning elbow or wild kick (again, I don't see that happening against a guy like Holloway). For those reasons, I am going over 3.5 rounds here.
Parkers' pick: Over 3.5 rounds (-162)
